Hot Trainers, Winner’s Circle Bias, and Real Methods

Have you ever seen those images of the damages of planes flown in World War II? Analysts would look at where the artillery damage clustered on the fuselage as informative data to decide where to put extra armor. The idea, of course, was that adding armor to the areas that often took hits would protect the planes from casualty.

This ignores the survivorship circle bias.

The smartest analysis looked at the damage and thought, this is where planes don’t need extra armor because the planes damaged elsewhere never made it home. The more significant data about the plane’s vulnerability is where all the crashed planes that can’t be analyzed are hit.

The best armor was added to the opposite places.

We are duped by survivorship bias hidden in many areas of our life and fitness is no different. The most classic fitness example is how consumers validate fitness methods when they see good looking people practicing those methods.

Most fitness brands know the power of beautiful people, so there is a natural over emphasis on beautiful people opening studios, teaching fitness, and subconsciously projecting a false equivalent that they are good looking because they do the exercise program they are selling.

HINT: good looking people didn’t get that way with a new gym membership.
They have their parents to thank for that.