3/9/12 - Historically speaking we have no idea..
*The Route 56 Challenge: Day 55*
Renown thinker, options trader, and philosopher, Nassem Taleb, once asked, “How can we logically go from specific instances to reach general conclusions?” Well, when you ask the question the way he did it may seem all too obvious that logically, we cannot. In his world, no number of past observations can give a perfect prediction of the future.
I’ll paraphrase one of his best examples of this. Imagine a Thanksgiving turkey at birth. Every day it walks around the grass and at noon the bell rings and out comes the feed. On the turkey’s 100th day of life, it walks around the grass and at noon the bell rings and it’s fed. 200 days into its life, you’d think the turkey would have this routine down by now. Surely, after 499 consecutive days of the same existence the turkey would take a $1 million bet about how day number 500 will go if he could. Imagine what it’s like for the turkey 1000 day’s in. What about day number 1,541, the day before Thanksgiving at 4 and a half years old, the ripe young turkey walks around the grass? He know’s the drill, right? Wrong. The bell rings and …whoop! Off with his head.
I bet he never saw that coming…
It’s human nature to think linearly. It’s easy for us to understand, so we lean on that type of thinking. With something like The Route 56 Challenge coming to a close, I often wonder what folks are telling themselves if things didn’t go as well. Will they make up the story that since they haven’t had success in health and wellness before, that they won’t in the future?
Show me someone that’s failed 10,000 days in a row, and I’ll show you someone that has a 50/50 shot on day 10,0001. Stories are for books, so stop creating them in your life. If you think you’re on a path paved by your past, you’re only right because you say it’s true.
Muscle Snatch 5-5-5-5-5
Power Snatch 3-3-3-3-3
Squat Snatch 1-1-1-1-1
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